Better to have no deal at Copenhagen than catastrophe

Written on Friday, December 18th, 2009 at 4:01 am by ethioforum

naomi kleinWe don’t yet know what Zenawi got in exchange for so radically changing his tune or how, exactly, you go from a position calling for $400bn a year in financing (the Africa group’s position) to a mere $10bn.

Naomi Klein guardian.co.uk, 18 December 2009 – On the ninth day of the Copenhagen climate summit, Africa was sacrificed. The position of the G77 negotiating bloc, including African states, had been clear: a 2C increase in average global temperatures translates into a 3–3.5C increase in Africa. That means, according to the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, “an additional 55 million people could be at risk from hunger”, and “water stress could affect between 350 and 600 million more people”.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu puts it like this: “We are facing impending disaster on a monstrous scale … A global goal of about 2C is to condemn Africa to incineration and no modern development.”

And yet that is precisely what Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, proposed to do when he stopped off in Paris on his way to Copenhagen: standing with President Nicolas Sarkozy, and claiming to speak on behalf of all of Africa (he is the head of the African climate-negotiating group), he unveiled a plan that includes the dreaded 2C increase and offers developing countries just $10bn a year to help pay for everything climate related, from sea walls to malaria treatment to fighting deforestation.

It’s hard to believe this is the same man who only three months ago was saying this: “We will use our numbers to delegitimise any agreement that is not consistent with our minimal position … If need be, we are prepared to walk out of any negotiations that threaten to be another rape of our continent … What we are not prepared to live with is global warming above the minimum avoidable level.”And this: “We will participate in the upcoming negotiations not as supplicants pleading for our case but as negotiators defending our views and interests.”

We don’t yet know what Zenawi got in exchange for so radically changing his tune or how, exactly, you go from a position calling for $400bn a year in financing (the Africa group’s position) to a mere $10bn. Similarly, we do not know what happened when secretary of state Hillary Clinton met Philippine president Gloria Arroyo just weeks before the summit and all of a sudden the toughest Filipino negotiators were kicked off their delegation and the country, which had been demanding deep cuts from the rich world, suddenly fell in line.

We do know, from witnessing a series of these jarring about-faces, that the G8 powers are willing to do just about anything to get a deal in Copenhagen. The urgency does not flow from a burning desire to avert cataclysmic climate change, since the negotiators know full well that the paltry emissions cuts they are proposing are a guarantee that temperatures will rise a “Dantesque” 3.9C, as Bill McKibben puts it.

Matthew Stilwell of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development – one of the most influential advisers in these talks – says the negotiations are not really about averting climate change but are a pitched battle over a profoundly valuable resource: the right to the sky. There is a limited amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere. If the rich countries fail to radically cut their emissions, then they are actively gobbling up the already insufficient share available to the south. What is at stake, Stilwell argues, is nothing less than “the importance of sharing the sky”.

Europe, he says, fully understands how much money will be made from carbon trading, since it has been using the mechanism for years. Developing countries, on the other hand, have never dealt with carbon restrictions, so many governments don’t really grasp what they are losing. Contrasting the value of the carbon market – $1.2 trillion a year, according to leading British economist Nicholas Stern – with the paltry $10bn on the table for developing countries for the next three years, Stilwell says that rich countries are trying to exchange “beads and blankets for Manhattan”. He adds: “This is a colonial moment. That’s why no stone has been left unturned in getting heads of state here to sign off on this kind of deal … Then there’s no going back. You’ve carved up the last remaining unowned resource and allocated it to the wealthy.”

For months now NGOs have got behind a message that the goal of Copenhagen is to “seal the deal”. Everywhere we look in the Bella Centre, clocks are ticking. But any old deal isn’t good enough, especially because the only deal on offer won’t solve the climate crisis and might make things much worse, taking current inequalities between north and south and locking them in indefinitely.

Augustine Njamnshi of the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance puts the 2C proposal in harsh terms: “You cannot say you are proposing a ’solution’ to climate change if your solution will see millions of Africans die and if the poor not the polluters keep paying for climate change.”

Stilwell says that the wrong kind of deal would “lock in the wrong approach all the way to 2020″ – well past the deadline for peak emissions. But he insists that it’s not too late to avert this worst-case scenario. “I’d rather wait six months or a year and get it right because the science is growing, the political will is growing, the understanding of civil society and affected communities is growing, and they’ll be ready to hold their leaders to account to the right kind of a deal.”

At the start of these negotiations the mere notion of delay was environmental heresy. But now many are seeing the value of slowing down and getting it right. Most significant, after describing what 2C would mean for Africa, Archbishop Tutu pronounced that it is “better to have no deal than to have a bad deal”. That may well be the best we can hope for in Copenhagen. It would be a political disaster for some heads of state – but it could be one last chance to avert the real disaster for everyone else.

Related post:

  • Ethiopia betrays Africa at Copenhagen, Tanzaniya paper
  • The mouse that roared in Copenhagen
  • ‘Meles accepts the destruction of Africa’ - G77 bloc
  • The Toxic Ecology of African Dictatorships
  • Corruption: Tyrant Zenawi Betray Africa at COP15
  • 16 Responses to “Better to have no deal at Copenhagen than catastrophe”

    1. ME Says:

      Come on, Zenawi can do it even for nothing let alone 10billion usd. People do not know whom this guy is. Here is what clearly characterizes this idiot.
      HE BOTHERS ONLY ABOUT HIS POWER. HE WILL DO ANYTHING HE CAN AS LONG AS THE WEST LEADERS ARE OK WITH IT. PERIOD

    2. Gezachew Says:

      Melese is sale out. He do not care for the people. He only wants to get closer with the white leaders so that they will shut their mouth and allow him to oppress the people Ethiopian people.

    3. andenet behane Says:

      the copenhagn climet change deal only for meles pockt not represent african he paid for geting to be represent african because the cnspirecy organized by obama ,brown ,sarkozy instade to negotiate in front of the inviormental expert behind door without the african counterpartner for the benift of the african peoples. I hope the nation come togather to dimand the best for african, the global warming create by industrial countries responsbil for the damage they konw but they went to creat antagonistic among africa that why pay to the weak the one kill innocent peoples this problem hanting every one in the glob we call to all humanetrian consern group fight this catastraphe. we never seen this kind patology lie in the past we don’t have in the future he never keep his word that why the west want a person going with their lie even the support from obama ignore ethiopian human right violation I dont think trust lost in the ethiopian obama is going to regret support dectator all world stand with you for change on polling place yes we can

    4. ali Says:

      አንድ ነገር ከምንም ይሽላል. አስተዳደር ማለት ይህ ነው. ኢድየት አንሁን እናስተውል.

    5. Tulu Says:

      Of course this is the best opportunity for Meles to look like a compromiser at the cost of selling out on the other African negotiators. This is nothing but political manoeuvre played by our “good guy” Obama. The big polluters have to divide and conquer these pathetic losers. African should dump the guy and walk away fro m the table and do it again. I bet you that is what he wants; and he is going to look good among his “sponsors” and the African negotiators are going to be considered un-compromisers.

    6. BIRTU/CAN Says:

      The man is selling his own country bit by bit. Why should we be surprised for his latest screw up? The man will sell his own mother for the right price. He is the perfect “useful idiot” that the ferenji’’s would love to have by their side. His credit score climbed up a notch in the eyes of America and Europe since he bowed down to lick their boots. Those of YOU living in the la la land–dreaming Ethiopia’s ills will be resolved by the ballot box while Meles is alive–better give up! Those of you hoping to get sympathy and support from America and Europe in gaining your freedom from Meles Zenawi–better give up! Scratch the idea of “ballot” and replace it with “bullet”.

      FREE BIRTUKAN

    7. A.B.D. Says:

      የነቶኒ ብሌየር የአፍሪካ ተወካይ የነበረው መለስ ከሃዲነቱን ክብሄራዊነት ወደአህጉራዊነት አሳደገው ! መለስ ይህንን እድል በደንብ አድርጎ ለመጠቀም ነው አሰፍስፎ ወደጉባኤው የገሰገሰው :: የሱ አላማ ግልጽ ነው : በተገኘው አጋጣሚ ምእራባውያን አለቆቹን ማስደሰትና ስልጣኑን ማራዘም ነው :: ይህንን የትውልድ ገዳይ ግለሰብ በሙሉ ሃይላችን መታገል ይጠበቅብናል ::

    8. Bertu Says:

      By this act, Melese did to Africa what he has been doing to Ethiopia for the last 18 years. I hope this lesson will not be lost to the rest of the people on the continent.

      2 Celsius may seem nothing to a great deal of people. For a nation like Ethiopia who depend on trade wind to carry moisture (rainfall) from the Red Sea and the Congo basin, 2 Celsius will forever shift its wind direction to the Indian ocean instead of the Ethiopian Highlands. This will mean Ethiopia may never get a single drop of rain for decades to come if not for centuries.

      Brace for one of the most catastrophe of biblical proportion to be unleashed to Ethiopia and the AFRICAN PEOPLE. Therefore, the dreadful drought and famine which has been the curse of our generation will be a walk in the park compared to what’s to come. Melese treachery in Copenhagen undoubtedly will go down in history as the most heinous culprit that wiped out every living species including man form the face of AFRICA.

      May LORD Save all of us, Amen!
      Bertu

    9. GOD-SAVE-ETHIOPIA Says:

      As other Africans have sold Ethiopia and Ethiopians at this difficult time , the sold out banda Melese has sold an entire Africans and other third worldf countries for the westren countries. Melese who has a deep rooted an Identity crisis has been selling Ethiopia for the last 18 YEARS. 1. His agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia over ababy,Melese signed over ethiopia’s natural resource under the statement ” ethiopia and egypt will not have any activity around abaye’s river which can decrease the volume of the water” can you immagine .2. Melese said sea port and hotel are the same. we do not need sea port .3. the algere’s agreement about badme. 4. Now this bloody dictator is selling ethiopia’s fertile soil for foreigners by saying “idle farm” and others. So the son of those bloody bandas knows only selling, betraying and lying. So no wonder If this criminal sold Africans as usual. How shame for Africa. Africa does’t have some one who can represent it’S children

    10. Mela Mela Says:

      ወይ ነዶ መሞትና አንበሴ

      ባለማቓረጥ የምታደርጉት የወያኔን ሻጥር የማጋለጥ ጽሁፋችሁ ,ጥሩ ቅልጥም ሰባሪ ዜጋዎች እንደሚያሰኛችሁ ጥርጥር የለኝም :ይህ የወይኔ መጥኔ መንግስት የኢትዮጵያን ህዝብ በግድ ውደዱኝ አክብሩኝ ባይ በዕብሪት የተለከፈና ለራሱ
      ጥቅም የቆመ መሆኑን በተደጋጋሚና በየአጋጣሚው ተነጋግረንበታል :: ይህ የወይኔ መጥኔ ቡድን ከፍርሃቱ የተነሳ
      በህዝብ ተወዳጅ የሆነችዋን, ብርቱካንን ዕስር ቤት በመቆለፍ, ልጇንና እናትዋንም የህሊና ዕስረኛ አድርጛቸዋል:

      እንዴት ብንናቅ ነው ኢትዮጵያ የፖለቲካ እስረኛ የላትም የምንባለው? እነዚህ የወይኔ መጥኔ ጋንግ በቁማችን ሱሪያችንን ከገፈፉት ቆይተዋል : ከአንትራክስ የበለጠ ሂትለራዊ ዕባጭ ሃገሪቱ ላይ ከተነሰነሰ 19ነኛውን ያዘ::
      ኢትዮጵያችን ሰው ስራሽ የሆነ የቸነፈር ማዕበል እያጥለቀለቃትና ለአንዱ (በተለይም) ለገዥው ዘር የሚደረገው ዓይን ያወጣ አድሎ ማንንም ዜጋ የሚረብሽ ነው : ታዲያ ይህንን እያዩ እንደ ዾሮና ሙድሰን የሚባሉ የመጥኔ ወያኔ ግልገል የውስጥ አርበኞች ጉያችን ገብተው ውዥንብር መንዛትን ሲፈልጉም ደርሶ ወያኔ ተቃዋሚ መምሰልን አውቀውበታል:

      በተለይ ዶሮማ ተረትና ምሳሌ አራሚ, ደርሶ ዓረፍተ ነገር አስተካካይ,የአማርኛ ቓንቓ ካራቲስት ነኝ ማለት ብቻ ነው የቀረህ ,እና ይህ ጥልፍ መስመር (web site) አገልግሎቱ ለሁሉም ሆኖ ሳለ ,ዓቢይ አላማው የዓፓርታይድን መጥኔ ወያኔ መንግስት መፋለም ነው ,በተቻለን መጠን ከዚህ እብደት ከተቀላቀለበት እያሰርክ ፍታ ,እያሰርክ ፍታ, እያሰርክ ፍታ,የትም ያልታየ የፖለቲካ ቅዠት የ Gestapo አቅጣጫ ለመሆኑ ግልጽ ነው ::

      መለስም ይህ የአልቤንያን ፖሊሲና አፍነህ ግዛው እየተጠላለፈበት ቢያስቸግረውም , ወደብልጽግናው በመነከር, አደገኛ አትንኩኝ ባይ, አድንቁኝ ባይ ኢጎይስት ለመሆን በቅትዋል : “ምን ያለበት ምን አይችልም እንዲሉ”.

      ዜጋ ሰላዮች ሆይ! ላንድ አፍታ የኢትዮጵያን ህዝብ አስቡት,ላንድ አፍታ ከህሊናችሁ ጋር ተመካከሩ! ወይም አይ ወያኔ መጥኔ ለኔ የምትሉ ከሆነ ግልጽ ሁኑ: የወያኔን መንግስት ለምቃወም በሚደረግ ሰልፍ ሁሉ, ደርሶ ተቃዋሚ በመምሰልና ባንዲራ በመከናነብ ካሜራ እያያዛችሁ ጭራችሁን ከግራ ወደቀኝ መነስነሱን አቁሙና ወያኔን በመደገፍ እዛው ቦታ ላይ Counter oppsition ብታደርጉ ትልቅ ርስፔክት ታገኛላችሁ አትጠራጠሩ; ዓደራ ታዲያ በጋቢ እንዳትከናነቡ ትልቅ ችግር ነው የምትገቡት::

      ጸሎት! ኢትዮጵያ እባክሽን እጆችሽን በምድርሽ ላይ ለተፈጠሩትና አንቺን እንደእናት ለተቀበሉሽ ሁሉ የይቅርታሽን ክንድ ዘርጊላቸው!!!ዓሜን

    11. Tarik Says:

      Here is my suggestion to the redoubtable Naomi Klein,the writer of those wonderful books ‘NO LOGO ‘ and ‘THE SHOCK DOCTRINE” to turn her forensic gaze on how the Western powers primarily the U.K and the U.S imposed on us a minority ethnic regime that has fabulously enriched itself and impoverished and traumatized the nation for the last 20 years.

      She would then be able to answer her own question ‘…what Zenawi got in exchange for so radically changing his tune or how, exactly, you go from a position calling for $400bn a year in financing (the Africa group’s position) to a mere $10bn.

    12. GOD-SAVE-ETHIOPIA Says:

      Just tell me how could Melese cares about climate when he is a child killer?

    13. doro Says:

      mela mela ስማ ምናልባት አማርኛ አርጅቶ ሲጦር እኛ ቤት እየዳኅ ነው:ተቃዋሚ ማለት ትርጉሙን የተረዳህ አይመስለኝም :እኔ በግሌ ማንንም የማልደግፍ ግን ያየሁትን የምጽፍ የማንም የፖለቲካ ድርጅት ተገዢ ያልሆንኩ ነኝ ስለኔ ማወቅ ክፈለግክ ክዚህ በፊት የጻፍኩትን ማንበብ ትችላለህ መለስም ይህንን ገንዘብ መጠየቁና ማግኘቱ ሊመሰገነው ይገባል እንጂ ሊወቀስ አይገባዉም:: አስር ቢሊዮን ለ53 ሲክፈል ቢቀር ቢቀር የመሪዎቹን ኪስ ያረጥባል; መለስም ምን ያገኛል ብላ ለጻፈችውም መልሱም ሳይታለም የተፈታ ነው:1 ብርቱካን ሚዴቅሳና ሌሎች በእስር ቤት የታጎሩት እስረኞች 2 ምርጫው እየመጣ ስለሆነ ከአሜሪካ ጋርና ክ ኢውሮፕያን ዩኒየን ጋር መስማማቱ ከዚህ ሁሉ መአት እንደሚያወጣውና ኦባማም ሆነ ኢዩ ፊታቸውን እንደሚያዞሩ ጠንቅቆ ስለሚያውቅ ካልኩሌትድ የሆነ የፖለቲካ ሙቭ አርጎ ተሳክቶለታል

    14. Anbese Says:

      Mela Mela,
      ይሄ doro የሚባለውን የቤት ውስጥ አእዋፍ EMF በአዋጅ ሳይሆን ቅርጭጭ አድርጎ ካልዘጋውና ካካላገደው: አይደለም አማርኛውን እንግሊዝኛውን ጭምር እየገደለውና በአማርኛ ፊደል(የፖለቲካ ሙቭ…..) ጭራሽ ምን እንደሆን የማይታወቅ አርቲ ቡርቲ ጥናታዊ ዘገባ ለማን እንደሆን አይታወቅም: እርግጠኛ ነኝ ለብጤዎቹ ወያኔ ዶሮዎች ነው:: EMF እባካችሁን ይህንን ፎረም እንወደዋለንና ሌላ የዶሮ ጭንቅላት ላላቸው ሁሉ Doroforum አዘጋጁላቸውና doroን ቀይ ካርድ አሳዩልን:: አይናችንንና ጆሮዋችንን በጣም እንፈልገዋለን::
      የዶሮ ድፍረቱ ደግሞ: ከዚህ በፊት ስለኔ ማወቅ ከፈለግህ የጻፍኩትን ማንበብ ትችላለህ አለ::
      ዶሮ! ስለ እንቅጥቅጥ እስክስታ ብትዘግብ ይሻልሃል::
      ዶሮ ራስ!

    15. Doro Says:

      አንበሴ ለምን ሌላ ሰው ሆነህ ለመጻፍ ትሞክራለህ አማርኛ የእናቴ ቋንቁዋ ባይሆንም የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ቋንቁዋ ነው በኢትዮጵያ ብቻ ሳይሆን በብዙ ሀግሮች እየስፋ ያለነው እንግሊዝኛውንም እንዲሁ እየተለማመድኩ ነው ካልገባህ ይቅርታ እጥይቃለሁ :ግን ሀሳብህን አትስጥ ኢሳያስ አፈወርቂን ደግፍ የምትል ክሆነ ተሳስተሀል :እንዳንት አይነት በምርቃና የምትጽፈውን እንኳን ለማታውቀው አልተከለክልከም THANK YOU EMF FOR THE FREE SPEACH !!!!

    16. Kendall Solarz Says:

      I must say that this page of yours is an excellent find for me. I was just surfing and discovered this. Thanks.